Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia is inevitably accompanied by inflated spreads—this is the price for a new market, risks, and infrastructure. However, as my analysis of market dynamics shows, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive field is simply unrealistic. Ultimately, the price for the client is determined not by the bank's greed, but by the cost of liquidity and the user's willingness to pay for a regulated framework.
At the initial stage, spreads will be high. Banks will have to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building a new technological base. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points of the asset's value. But this is a temporary phenomenon: as soon as several major players and regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress at a striking pace.
The key factor here is not the regulator, but the market itself. The spread is formed from the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging costs, and the specific bank's margin. The central bank will likely focus on access rules and infrastructure, rather than directive setting of quotes. Therefore, the variation in markups between banks will be significant—until competition levels the playing field.
Who wins the race for the client
Victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about professional investors. The more liquidity providers and banking competition there are, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client today is not willing to pay just for the word "bank." After 2022, stress levels in retail are high, and users are open to many scenarios except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. But wealthy clients are a completely different story. With an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person willingly pays for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whom such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is rhetorical.
My conclusion: the market will quickly reach equilibrium, and banks that are the first to offer fair spreads will capture the lion's share of the affluent audience. Inflated markups at the start are merely a short-term strategy that will result in losing clients in the long run.