Crypto news

Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its assessment of the prospects for the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous expectations, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding cryptoasset regulation.

Key obstacles remain unresolved disagreements over several provisions of the document. First and foremost, this concerns ethical standards for government officials, which are sparking fierce debates among lawmakers. Additionally, significant discussions are underway regarding rules on stablecoin yields—this issue has become a stumbling block for many market participants and politicians.

The time factor also plays a crucial role. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to advance the initiative. This timeframe is extremely limited, given that midterm elections lie ahead, which will inevitably shift the political elite's attention to election campaigns rather than legislative initiatives in the digital assets sphere.

It is worth emphasizing that even if the CLARITY Act is not passed in the current cycle, this does not mean regulatory stagnation. The market continues to adapt to existing norms, and individual states, such as New York and Texas, are already shaping their own approaches to cryptocurrencies. However, the lack of federal clarity creates significant uncertainty for institutional investors who expect clear rules of the game.

As a professional in this field, I believe that Galaxy Digital's current assessment looks realistic but not pessimistic. Even 10% is not a zero chance, and cryptopolitics has seen unexpected twists. Nevertheless, investors should prepare for a prolonged period of regulatory uncertainty, which could push some capital toward jurisdictions with more favorable legislation, such as the UAE or Singapore.