Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: expert forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads, which will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, as the basic laws of a market economy show, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or more on a competitive field will not be possible. This is the conclusion I reach by analyzing the current dynamics and structure of the emerging market.
The key factor that will determine the final price for the client is not the bank's appetite for excess profits, but the real cost of liquidity, the client's willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. Banks will be forced to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure, which at the start will inevitably drive margins up to several basis points.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
At the initial stage, banks will need to compensate for significant costs related to liquidity and legal support. However, I do not see sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads at 5–7% or higher. As soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will dictate the terms: the final spread will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the specific bank's margin.
The Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups across different banks may vary significantly, creating fertile ground for arbitrage and competition.
Who will win the race for the client
In this confrontation, victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers there are and the sharper the competition between banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the currency market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client today is not ready to pay just for the word "bank." Since 2022, the level of stress among the retail audience has been high: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. Wealthy clients, however, are a completely different story. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank, I consider rhetorical.
My conclusion: bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia are a temporary "pioneer" phenomenon. The market will inevitably move to competitive levels, and banks that fail to optimize liquidity costs will find themselves outsiders in the fight for the most valuable clients.