Russia's Cryptocurrency Strategy: Two Payment Circuits — Public and Private
Russia is entering a new era of digital asset regulation, and my analysis shows that the chosen model has no direct analogues in the world. While global players are seeking a unified approach to digital currencies, Moscow is building two isolated payment circuits: a mandatory public one for domestic settlements and a legalized private one for foreign economic activity. This is not merely a technical solution but a strategic maneuver dictated by geopolitical reality.
The Essence of the Legislative Maneuver
The President signed the law "On Digital Currency and Digital Rights" on August 4. The document comes into force on September 1, 2026, but key provisions will be implemented in stages. Mandatory registration of crypto exchanges in the Bank of Russia registry will begin on July 1, 2027, and requirements for intermediaries from September of the same year. It is important to note that a new category is being introduced — digital depositories, which will be responsible for accounting for client assets and compensating for damages in the event of unauthorized write-offs.
Strict criteria have been established for admitting assets to trading: capitalization exceeding 5 trillion rubles, average daily turnover of more than 1 trillion, and a trading history of at least five years. Today, only bitcoin and ether fall under these parameters. Unqualified investors will receive a limit of 300 thousand rubles per year with one intermediary, subject to mandatory testing.
The Public Circuit: The Digital Ruble
Starting September 1, mandatory acceptance of the digital ruble begins — a state retail currency that the United States has legislatively rejected until 2030, and which Europe is only designing. Domestically, this is the only legal instrument for settlements. The balance of funds remains with the Bank of Russia, ensuring full traceability of transactions.
It is telling that as of July 1, only about 25 million digital rubles were in circulation (~$320 thousand for the entire country). But in two months, acceptance will become mandatory for companies with revenue exceeding 120 million rubles. This will create a forced flow from bank balances into central bank liabilities — exactly what all other central banks in the world avoid.
The Private Circuit: Foreign Trade
For foreign trade contracts, an experimental regime has been in effect since September 2024, which is now being converted to permanent status. Cryptocurrency is recognized as property with judicial protection, and the holder of the access key is considered the owner. Foreign and non-custodial wallets are not prohibited. When withdrawing funds exceeding 100 thousand rubles to an external address, a 48-hour delay is provided starting September 1, 2027.
Taxation arises only upon sale: 13% on income up to 2.4 million rubles and 15% above that amount. The 3-NDFL declaration must be filed by April 30. The holding period exemption applicable to other assets does not apply to cryptocurrency.
Starting July 1, 2027, banks are obliged to refuse transfers to unlicensed crypto services, which effectively closes the channel for funding foreign platforms through the Russian banking system.
Expert Perspective
The Russian model resembles the Chinese one, but with an important difference: Beijing, starting January 1, 2026, reclassified the digital yuan held in commercial bank accounts as a deposit obligation with interest accrual and deposit insurance. Moscow has not yet decided whether to follow this path. The key question is whether Russia will repeat the Chinese maneuver and return the balance to the banking system through yield. The answer will become evident from the dynamics of the deposit base by the end of 2027.
In my view, the separation of circuits is a forced measure rather than an ideological choice. Domestically, the state retains control over balances, while externally it uses assets that no transaction participant issues. This works where correspondent channels have become difficult to navigate due to external restrictions. However, the volatility of bitcoin and ether remains an independent risk for contracts with deferred payment.
Over the next year and a half, the main intrigue is not whether the circuits of different countries will align, but whether Russia can avoid the Chinese trap and not turn the digital ruble into an instrument for the mass withdrawal of liquidity from banks. The deposit base by the end of 2027 will provide an unambiguous answer.