Crypto news

Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This decision reflects ongoing political disagreements that continue to stall the initiative's progress, despite its importance for regulating the cryptocurrency market.

Key sticking points remain issues related to ethical standards for government officials, as well as controversial provisions concerning stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking active debate among lawmakers, significantly complicating the achievement of consensus. Moreover, the time window for passing the bill is critically narrowing: after senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season tied to the midterm elections begins.

Under current conditions, the political agenda will inevitably shift toward election campaigns, making productive consideration of complex and contentious legislative initiatives unlikely. Even if the CLARITY Act is brought to a vote, it is highly likely to face procedural delays or be postponed indefinitely.

For the crypto industry, this means continued regulatory uncertainty, which in turn constrains institutional investment and slows down innovation adoption in the U.S. Amid the active development of digital assets in other jurisdictions, such as Europe and Asia, the lack of clear rules of the game in the U.S. is becoming an increasingly tangible competitive disadvantage.

My view: Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, the very fact of its discussion signals growing recognition of cryptocurrency as a significant element of the financial system. However, the market needs certainty, and prolonged delays in regulation could cause the U.S. to lose its leadership in this field, ceding it to more flexible and progressive regulators.