Market competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia.
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be marked by inflated spreads — significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, banks will not be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive market. I make this forecast based on an analysis of cost structures and player behavior in the new regulatory environment.
Why spreads will be high at first, then decline
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor significant operational costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could easily reach several basis points, making the first months of operation expensive for clients.
Nevertheless, I do not see sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads at the level of 5–7% or higher. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The key factor here is not the regulator's desire to set tariffs, but natural market dynamics.
The spread will be shaped by the market, not the regulator. It consists of the global price of the crypto asset plus the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the margin of a specific bank. The Bank of Russia, as expected, will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not fix buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity in the order book, and the cost of the bank's own liquidity, which will have to be held on balance sheets in significant amounts. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary factors.
Who will win the battle for clients
Victory will go to those with the largest marketing budget and the highest willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This applies not only to qualified investors but also to the mass-market user.
The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the currency market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass-market client is currently not ready to pay simply for the word "bank." This is linked to the high level of stress among the retail audience since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one — an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client will choose not their own accountant, but a Russian bank — that is a rhetorical question.
My conclusion: a short-term period of high spreads is inevitable, but it will not last long. Banks that are the first to build efficient infrastructure and offer competitive prices will capture the main market share. The rest will have to either reduce margins or move into niche products for premium clients.