Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage are only 10%
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a noticeable decline compared to previous estimates, reflecting growing pessimism about the prospects for crypto regulation in the current political cycle.
Key obstacles remain unresolved political disagreements that are stalling the initiative's progress. Primarily, this concerns ethical standards for government officials, which are controversial among lawmakers, as well as provisions related to stablecoin yields. These aspects create serious friction between different factions, making it difficult to reach a compromise.
The time factor also works against the bill. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to review and pass the document. Ahead of the midterm elections, the political agenda will shift toward campaign battles, leaving virtually no window for complex legislative maneuvers.
This dynamic indicates that even with past bipartisan support, the CLARITY Act now faces a unique combination of procedural and substantive challenges. The market has already begun pricing in increased risks of regulatory delays, which could heighten volatility in the digital asset sector.
My analysis: Lowering the probability to 10% looks realistic, given that during the election race lawmakers rarely risk supporting complex technical initiatives. However, even in the event of failure this year, the foundation for future negotiations will remain — the question is just how quickly the industry can adapt to new political realities.