Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia
The start of banking operations with cryptocurrency in Russia will inevitably begin with inflated spreads, but it will not be possible to maintain margins at 5–7% or higher under real competition. This is a fundamental conclusion I draw based on an analysis of market dynamics and the behavior of financial institutions on new regulated platforms.
Why spreads will be high at first and then decline
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making services expensive for early users.
However, I do not see sustainable preconditions for maintaining spreads in the 5–7% range. As soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress at a high rate. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final price. The spread will be composed of the global price of the asset, liquidity costs, hedging and infrastructure expenses, as well as the specific bank's margin.
It is important to emphasize: the Bank of Russia will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific quotes. Therefore, the markup will vary significantly between banks, creating the groundwork for a price war.
Who will win the race for clients
Victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors but also about mass demand.
The more liquidity providers there are and the tougher the competition between banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. Today's mass client is not willing to pay just for the word "bank." The stress level of the retail audience has been high since 2022: users are open to many scenarios, but not to unjustifiably expensive services.
The situation is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a lack of problems. Such a client will choose not a "gray" accountant but a Russian bank, if it ensures reliability. The question here is rhetorical.
My conclusion: bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia are a temporary phenomenon. The market will quickly find equilibrium, and those who bet on long-term client loyalty rather than short-term excess profits will take leading positions in the new financial reality.