Galaxy Digital sharply lowered its forecast for the adoption of the CLARITY Act: chances are estimated at 10%
Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, reducing the likelihood of its approval to 10% by 2026. This is a significant decrease compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing political uncertainty surrounding cryptocurrency regulation in the United States.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disputes over several fundamental points. First and foremost, these are ethical standards for government officials who may participate in digital asset regulation, as well as provisions concerning the distribution of stablecoin yields. These issues are sparking heated debates both among lawmakers and in lobbying circles, significantly slowing the progress of the initiative.
Of particular concern is the time factor. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for full consideration and voting. Given the upcoming midterm elections, the political agenda will shift toward issues more pressing to voters, making the swift passage of such a complex and controversial bill unlikely.
In my view, this assessment by Galaxy Digital appears realistic, although it does not account for the possibility of sudden last-minute compromises. Nevertheless, for the market, this is a signal that breakthrough federal regulation should not be expected in the short term. Investors should prepare for continued fragmented regulation at the state level, which will maintain uncertainty for institutional players.