Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of the law being passed in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop from previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding digital asset regulation in the United States.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disputes over two fundamental aspects. First, ethical standards for government officials that could affect their participation in cryptocurrency markets. Second, provisions defining yield mechanisms for stablecoins—an issue sparking sharp debates among issuers, regulators, and the banking sector. These disagreements create serious legal and political deadlocks that are unlikely to be overcome in the near term.
The time factor also works against the initiative. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks before the election campaign begins. Midterm elections traditionally divert politicians' attention away from complex legislative initiatives, especially controversial ones like crypto industry regulation. During this period, populist topics will take priority over the technical details of financial legislation.
In my view, even this 10% forecast may prove optimistic. Given the depth of disagreements over stablecoins—where the interests of issuers such as Tether and Circle clash with the positions of the Federal Reserve and the Treasury—and the lack of consensus on ethical standards, the bill is effectively doomed to be postponed until the next Congress. The market is already pricing this in, and participants should prepare for prolonged regulatory uncertainty, which will continue to restrain institutional inflows into U.S. crypto assets.