Crypto news

Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, drastically lowering the probability of its approval to 10% in the current political cycle. This decision reflects a deep analysis of the current legislative dynamics and accumulated contradictions that make the passage of the initiative extremely unlikely.

Key obstacles to the bill

The main stumbling blocks remain unresolved issues that spark heated debate among lawmakers. First and foremost, this concerns the development of ethical standards for government officials who will interact with digital assets. This aspect, traditionally sensitive for both parties, requires fine-tuning for which Congress currently simply has no time.

Equally controversial is the provision on the distribution of yield from stablecoins. The question of who receives interest income from reserve assets and under what conditions has become a true point of contention. Financial lobbyists and regulators propose diametrically opposed approaches, which significantly slows down reaching a compromise.

The time factor and political calendar

The situation is exacerbated by tight time constraints. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks of productive work left before the start of the election race. The midterm elections will inevitably shift politicians' attention from lawmaking to electoral campaigns, effectively freezing consideration of any complex initiatives.

Under such conditions, even a favorable alignment of circumstances is unlikely to bring the bill to a vote. In my view, such a low assessment from Galaxy Digital is not just a statement of fact, but a signal to the market that the industry should not count on a swift clarification of the regulatory environment at the federal level. Investors and stablecoin issuers should prepare for prolonged uncertainty and revisit their strategies, focusing on longer planning horizons.