Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed: only 10% remain.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act, a legislative initiative aimed at regulating the cryptoasset market in the United States. The probability that the Senate will approve the bill in 2026 is now estimated at just 10%. This is a significant decline compared to previous expectations, reflecting the growing political uncertainty surrounding the document.
The key stumbling blocks remain unresolved issues that have long stalled the initiative's progress. Chief among these are the introduction of strict ethical standards for government officials, as well as controversial provisions concerning the distribution of stablecoin yields. These aspects are causing sharp disagreements both among lawmakers and within specialized committees, making consensus extremely difficult to achieve.
The situation is compounded by a severe time crunch. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for a full review and vote on the bill. Further work will become impossible due to the start of the election campaign ahead of the midterm elections, when the political agenda will inevitably shift toward intra-party struggles.
In my view, the current dynamics indicate that the CLARITY Act is unlikely to be passed in this political cycle. Even if the text can be finalized at the last moment, the depth of contradictions over ethics and stablecoin issues makes a compromise unlikely. The market is already beginning to price in the delay in regulatory clarity, which could increase volatility in the coming weeks.