Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed: what lies behind the new forecast
Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval to a modest 10% by 2026. This significant change reflects the deep disagreements that continue to stall the initiative's progress at the legislative level.
The key stumbling blocks remain unresolved political issues that spark fierce debates among lawmakers. Chief among these are the introduction of strict ethical standards for government officials, as well as mechanisms for regulating stablecoin yields. These aspects, in my assessment, are fundamental to the future of the entire crypto industry, as they define the boundaries of interaction between the state and digital assets.
The situation is further intensified by the time factor. After senators return from recess, scheduled for September 14, lawmakers will have an extremely limited window—just two to three weeks—to pass such a sweeping bill. The approaching midterm elections will inevitably divert politicians' attention to campaign activities, making realistic progress on the CLARITY Act in the current cycle nearly impossible.
From my expert perspective, such a low probability estimate is not merely a pessimistic forecast, but a signal of systemic problems in the approach to cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. Until lawmakers find a compromise on ethical standards and stablecoin yields, the industry will remain in a state of uncertainty. This, in turn, will continue to push innovation and capital toward more friendly jurisdictions, which in the long term could weaken America's position as a global crypto hub.