Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop from previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the legislative process and accumulating political contradictions.
Several fundamental aspects remain key stumbling blocks. First, there are ethical standards for government officials, which have yet to find consensus among lawmakers. Second, provisions concerning stablecoin yields are sparking heated debates between innovation advocates and defenders of the traditional financial system. These unresolved issues create a significant risk of delaying the review process.
The time window for passing the initiative is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season tied to the midterm elections begins. During this period, lawmakers' priorities will inevitably shift toward political campaigns, making full consideration of a complex bill unlikely.
It is important to emphasize that the CLARITY Act, aimed at regulating the cryptocurrency market and stablecoins, is seen as a potential catalyst for institutional adoption of digital assets in the U.S. Its failure or delay could leave the industry in a state of uncertainty, negatively impacting capital inflows and infrastructure development.
My view: Lowering the probability to 10% looks realistic, given the fragmentation of political forces ahead of the elections. However, it is worth noting that even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, the very fact of its active discussion sets a precedent and forms the basis for future compromises. Investors should prepare for volatility while awaiting new signals from regulators, rather than relying on quick legislative solutions.