Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage are estimated at only 10%.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to the more optimistic estimates voiced earlier, and a signal that even with formal support from key market players, political reality is making its own adjustments.
The main obstacles, as I see them, lie not in the technical sphere but in the political one. This concerns unresolved disputes over ethical standards for government officials who may indirectly participate in regulating digital assets, as well as provisions related to stablecoin yields. The latter point is particularly sensitive: it affects the interests of the banking lobby and issuers, making a compromise extremely difficult.
The time window is closing
The key factor amplifying pessimism is the calendar. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks before the start of the election campaign ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, the political agenda will inevitably shift toward populist initiatives, and complex bills requiring detailed discussion will be shelved.
It is worth emphasizing: even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, this does not mean the collapse of cryptocurrency regulation in the United States. Rather, we are witnessing a classic cycle of delay, where the bill may be reworked and reintroduced. However, for the market, this means continued uncertainty, which weighs on institutional investors awaiting clear rules of the game.
My conclusion: the current Galaxy Digital assessment looks realistic but not fatal. If political will does not manifest in the coming weeks, the market will face a prolonged phase of stagnation in the regulatory sphere, which could push some capital toward more friendly jurisdictions, such as the UAE or Singapore.