Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency: analysts' forecast
The Russian market for bank cryptocurrency operations is just beginning to take shape, and the first steps will be costly for clients. At the start, spreads will be significantly higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but banks are unlikely to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more. This conclusion is evident from analyzing market dynamics and the behavior of major players.
Why spreads will be high at first
At the initial stage, banks will have to factor in significant costs: the price of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. This will inevitably affect the final price for the client.
However, as practice shows, sustainable spreads of 5–7% in a competitive market are a temporary phenomenon. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will determine the fair price.
The role of the regulator and market mechanisms
It is important to understand: the Bank of Russia will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks. Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. Infrastructure and legal costs will take a back seat.
The pricing mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. The more liquidity providers and competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels.
Who will win the battle for the client
The key success factor is the marketing budget and the willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The mass client is not willing to pay for the mere word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has remained high since 2022: users are open to many scenarios, but not to unjustifiably high service costs.
The picture is completely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a lack of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My conclusion: a short-term period of high spreads is inevitable, but it will not last long. Banks that are the first to build efficient infrastructure and offer fair prices will capture a significant market share. The rest will have to catch up, and that will be costly.