Crypto news

Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Congress, lowering the probability of its approval by the Senate in 2026 to 10%. This significant drop from previous levels reflects growing skepticism among the market and institutional players about the feasibility of the initiative in the current political cycle.

The key stumbling blocks remain unresolved political contradictions that are dragging the bill down. First and foremost, this concerns disputes over ethical standards for government officials — a point that sparks fierce debate among both Democrats and Republicans. Additionally, a separate block of disagreements relates to provisions on stablecoin yields: lawmakers cannot reach a consensus on whether issuers should share interest income with asset holders or keep it for themselves.

The time window is shrinking

The situation is exacerbated by tight time constraints. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks for a full review and vote on the bill. The subsequent agenda will be entirely consumed by preparations for the midterm elections, making the passage of the CLARITY Act this year practically impossible.

For the crypto industry, this means a prolonged lack of legal certainty at the federal level. Without clear regulation of stablecoins and the status of digital assets, companies continue to face a fragmented landscape at the state level, creating additional operational costs and legal risks.

My analysis: The drop in probability to 10% is not just a number, but a signal to the market that political will to regulate cryptocurrencies in the U.S. has waned ahead of the elections. Even if the bill is revived after November, its provisions will likely undergo significant changes under the pressure of new political realities. Investors should prepare for a period of uncertainty rather than rapid legislative breakthroughs.