Crypto news

Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the legislative process ahead of the midterm elections.

Unresolved political contradictions remain key obstacles. In particular, disputes are sparked by the inclusion of ethical standards for government officials, as well as provisions concerning the distribution of stablecoin yields. These aspects create additional points of tension between various factions in Congress, significantly slowing the initiative's progress.

Time Shortage as a Critical Factor

Of particular concern is the time horizon. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks for full consideration and voting on the bill. Given the tight schedule and the need to address other priority issues, this is an extremely compressed timeframe for such a large-scale and contentious initiative.

The midterm elections add an additional layer of complexity: lawmakers typically tend to avoid risky political decisions during this period, which reduces the likelihood of compromises on contentious points.

In my analysis, the current situation reflects a systemic problem in U.S. cryptoasset regulation—fragmentation of approaches and a lack of consensus even on fundamental issues. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, its provisions are likely to serve as a foundation for future discussions, making the tracking of this bill important for long-term planning in the industry.