Banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: why high fees are doomed to decline
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will inevitably begin with inflated spreads, which will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, as an analysis of market mechanisms shows, it simply will not be possible to maintain a markup of 5–7% or more in a healthy competitive environment. It is only a matter of time.
At the initial stage, banks will have to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, which will deter the mass client but attract those willing to pay for a regulated framework.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
The key factor that will pressure margins is the emergence of several banks and other regulated players in the market. As soon as competition becomes real, spreads will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will determine the final price. It will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the specific bank's infrastructure.
The Central Bank, in turn, will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but not on setting specific quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the start.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity, and the cost of liquidity that the bank is required to hold on its balance sheet. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary factors, although not insignificant.
Who will win the race for the client
Victory will go to those with the largest marketing budget and the highest willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competing banks there are, the closer prices will be to market levels.
The mass client is no longer willing to pay just for the word "bank." Since 2022, stress levels among the retail audience have risen: users are willing to accept many scenarios, but not unjustifiably high service costs. The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical.
My view: banks that are the first to offer adequate spreads and convenient regulated services will capture the lion's share of both institutional and retail flows. Inflated fees at the start are an inevitable price for infrastructure, but those who delay optimization risk being left behind when the market begins to dictate its terms.