Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered its forecast for the adoption of the CLARITY Act: chances have plummeted to 10%.
Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act bill in the U.S. Senate, drastically lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to a modest 10%. This decision reflects deep market skepticism about the prospects of cryptocurrency legislation in the current political climate.
A key factor in this pessimistic scenario is a set of unresolved political contradictions that continue to block the initiative's progress. First and foremost, this concerns disagreements over ethical standards for government officials who may be involved in digital assets, as well as controversial provisions related to mechanisms for distributing stablecoin yield. These aspects are sparking fierce debates both among lawmakers and within regulatory bodies.
The time window is also becoming a critically important factor. After senators return from recess on September 14, supporters of the bill will have an extremely limited period—just two to three weeks—before the campaign season begins ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, legislative activity traditionally slows down, giving way to political campaigns, making the swift passage of such a complex and voluminous document unlikely.
In my view, this assessment looks quite realistic. The market is already pricing in a high degree of uncertainty, and the lack of a clear compromise on key points only amplifies the risks that the CLARITY Act will either be postponed indefinitely or undergo significant changes that could strip it of its original essence. Investors should prepare for a prolonged phase of regulatory uncertainty in the U.S., which will continue to exert pressure on institutional adoption.