Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be accompanied by inflated spreads, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive market will not be possible. This is my conclusion after analyzing market mechanisms and the experience of experts in transactional banking and payments.
At the initial stage, banks will be forced to factor into the price for the client not so much a desire to profit, but rather real costs: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making services expensive for the end consumer.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
However, such figures will not be sustainable. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will ultimately set a fair price. It will be formed from the global price of the crypto asset plus the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the margin of a specific bank.
It is important to understand: the Bank of Russia will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups among different banks may vary significantly, especially at first.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself, which will be required on balance sheets in significant amounts. I would classify infrastructure and legal costs as secondary factors—they will not be decisive in pricing.
Who will win the fight for the client
Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. This applies not only to qualified investors but also to the mass-market client.
The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. The mass-market client is currently not willing to pay for the word "bank" alone—the level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022, and users are open to many scenarios except one: an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical. Banks that can offer premium service and reliability will capture this segment.
My verdict: a short-term period of high spreads is inevitable, but it will not last long. Competition and pressure from clients, especially large ones, will quickly bring margins to market levels. Banks that bet on technological sophistication and transparency, rather than a monopoly markup, will become the leaders of the new market.