Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed in the U.S. to 10%.
Galaxy Digital analysts have significantly revised their forecasts regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate. The probability of the bill being approved in 2026 is now estimated at just 10%. This is a notable decline from previous expectations, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding cryptoasset regulation in the United States.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disagreements over a number of fundamental provisions in the document. In particular, this concerns the introduction of strict ethical standards for government officials who may have conflicts of interest when dealing with digital currencies. Additionally, the issue of mechanisms for distributing yield from stablecoins is acute—this topic is sparking particularly fierce debate among lawmakers, as it directly affects the interests of major issuers and the banking sector.
The time factor also works against supporters of the initiative. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have an extremely limited window—just two to three weeks—for full consideration and voting. This is due to the approaching midterm elections, which will inevitably shift the attention of the political elite to electoral campaigns and partisan confrontations.
Under such conditions, even accelerated procedures are unlikely to help push the bill through. Lobbying groups and industry players, including major investment firms, are already beginning to factor into their strategies a scenario in which the CLARITY Act is postponed indefinitely, leaving regulation fragmented at the state level.
My analysis: The current situation demonstrates a fundamental problem: the American political system is not ready for quick compromises on complex technological issues. Even if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, its content will likely be hollowed out. For the market, this means continued uncertainty in stablecoin regulation, which will keep restraining institutional capital inflows into this sector. Investors should prepare for prolonged volatility driven not so much by market factors as by political delays in Washington.