The market will set the price: why bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia are doomed to decline
With the start of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia, spreads will initially be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, as my analysis of market dynamics shows, no player will be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more in a competitive field. The only question is how quickly the market will adjust these figures.
The key factor that will determine the price for the client is not so much the bank's appetite for profit, but rather the real cost of liquidity. Added to this is the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework, as well as the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. The bank, in essence, becomes not just an intermediary, but a provider of trust, and this premium for a "clean" entry into the crypto economy will be built into the spread from the outset.
Why high spreads are temporary
At the start, banks will have to factor several components into the price at once: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, and in some cases even cross the psychological barrier of 5–7%. But such figures, in my view, have no chance of becoming sustainable.
As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress. The mechanism will resemble not so much an administratively set tariff, but rather a live currency market, where price is shaped under competitive pressure. The spread will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the specific bank's infrastructure—and it is precisely these components that will move toward market values.
Who will win the race for the client
The central bank will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and the overall market infrastructure, but it will not set specific buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks, especially at the initial stage. Who will come out on top? The one with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy.
The mass client is not ready to overpay for the mere word "bank." Since 2022, the level of stress among the retail audience has grown to such an extent that users are willing to accept many scenarios, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. A completely different picture emerges among wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank remains rhetorical.
My conclusion: the market will inevitably move toward competition for liquidity, and banks that are the first to build efficient infrastructure with low operational costs will gain a decisive advantage. High spreads at the start are the price of entry, but those who delay optimization risk being left on the sidelines of the crypto economy.