Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the odds of passage in 2026 are only 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to a modest 10%. This decision reflects growing concern over unresolved political disagreements that continue to stall the initiative's progress.
Two aspects remain key sticking points. First, ethical standards for government officials—an issue that sparks heated debate in both parties and requires fine-tuning. Second, provisions concerning stablecoin yields, which directly affect the interests of major issuers and the banking sector. These contradictions create significant obstacles to achieving bipartisan consensus.
The time window for passing the law is also narrowing. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, the Senate will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season kicks off ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, priorities will shift toward political campaigns rather than legislative initiatives, further reducing the chances of advancing the CLARITY Act.
In my assessment, this dynamic is quite predictable. Cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. is becoming a hostage of the political cycle, and even technically well-crafted bills risk being left by the wayside if they do not fit into the pre-election agenda. However, 10% is not a zero chance, and in the event of an unexpected compromise on ethical standards, the situation could change. Nevertheless, the market should prepare for prolonged uncertainty on this issue.