Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will inevitably begin with inflated spreads, but maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in a healthy competitive environment will not be possible. This is my conclusion after analyzing market dynamics and expert assessments in the field of transactional banking.
Why initial spreads will be high but short-lived
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. However, a sustained spread of 5–7% or higher is a temporary phenomenon. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to shrink at a rapid pace.
The key factor here is market-based pricing, not administrative restrictions. The final spread is composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure expenses, and the specific bank's margin. The regulator, in particular the Bank of Russia, will control access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not set fixed buy and sell quotes. Therefore, the variation in markups between banks could be significant.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity in the "order book," and the cost of liquidity for the credit institution itself. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary.
Who will win the battle for the client
Victory will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is not willing to overpay merely for the word "bank." Since 2022, trust in retail financial institutions has declined, and users are willing to accept many scenarios, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. The situation is different for wealthy clients: large capital continues to move between jurisdictions, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Whether such a client chooses a bank rather than their own accountant is a rhetorical question.
My forecast: in the first 6–12 months, we will see spreads of 3–5% at the retail level, but by the end of 2025, competition will compress them to 1–2%. Banks that cannot offer a competitive price and quality service will quickly lose market share to more flexible players.