Galaxy Digital has revised its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage have dropped to 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have significantly lowered their estimate of the likelihood of the CLARITY Act passing through the U.S. Senate in 2026 — it now stands at just 10%. This is a substantial drop compared to previous expectations, reflecting the growing complexity of the legislative process ahead of the midterm elections.
The key factor holding back the bill's progress remains unresolved political disagreements. In particular, this concerns controversial provisions related to ethical standards for government officials, as well as mechanisms for distributing yield from stablecoins. These issues are sparking active debate among both lawmakers and the financial community, significantly slowing consensus.
Special attention is drawn to the timing factor. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have an extremely limited window — just two to three weeks — for a full review and vote on the initiative. Given the busy schedule tied to the elections, this makes realistic passage of the bill unlikely.
From my perspective, this assessment seems quite justified. The crypto industry urgently needs clear regulation, but political will in the U.S. is currently focused on other priorities. If the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, it could delay the formation of transparent rules for digital assets by several more years, creating additional uncertainty for the market.