Galaxy Digital lowers its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This significant change reflects growing concern over unresolved political contradictions that continue to stall the initiative's progress.
Two aspects remain key stumbling blocks: first, ethical standards for government officials, which are contentious among lawmakers, and second, provisions concerning stablecoin yields. The latter point is particularly sensitive, as it directly affects the interests of major issuers and the banking sector, creating additional lobbying pressure.
The time factor also plays a crucial role. After senators return from recess on September 14, supporters of the bill will have an extremely limited window—just two to three weeks—before the campaign season begins ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, legislative activity traditionally declines, and the political agenda shifts toward election campaigns.
Notably, even with such a low probability percentage, the very fact that discussions continue indicates the significance of cryptoasset regulation for the American political elite. However, given the complexity of compromises and tight deadlines, a realistic scenario suggests postponing consideration to the next legislative cycle.
My analysis: The drop in the estimate to 10% is not just a number but a signal to the market that investors incorporating the imminent passage of the CLARITY Act into their strategies should reassess risks. The conflict over stablecoin yields is especially telling: it demonstrates a fundamental divergence between the innovative potential of digital assets and conservative financial regulations. In the short term, this could increase market volatility, but in the long term, it will merely delay the inevitable integration of the crypto industry into the U.S. legal framework.