Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a new stage — legal cryptocurrency operations. However, the first steps in this market will be costly for clients: initial spreads will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges. But banks are unlikely to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more for long — market mechanisms will quickly put everything in its place.
Why spreads will be high at first
At the initial stage, banks will have to factor in significant costs: the price of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, which will inevitably be reflected in the final price for the client. This is a natural process — no one will operate at a loss when launching a new line of business from scratch.
However, such a margin will not be sustainable. As soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, spreads will begin to compress at a rapid pace. The market, not the regulator, will become the main arbiter of prices. The final cost for the client will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the bank's specific margin.
The role of the regulator and market mechanisms
The Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy or sell quotes. This means that markups across different banks could vary significantly. Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. Infrastructure and the legal framework are secondary factors.
The pricing mechanism will resemble the foreign exchange market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. In this race, the winner will be the one with the larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy.
Who will win the battle for the client
The mass-market client is currently not ready to overpay just for the word "bank." Since 2022, stress levels among retail audiences have been high: users are willing to accept many scenarios, but not unjustifiably high service costs. Wealthy clients, however, are a completely different story. Large capital continues to migrate between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a lack of problems. The only question is who they will trust with their money — their own accountant or a Russian bank. The answer, in my view, is obvious.
My conclusion: the banking sector faces a rapid cooling of margins, and those who can offer a competitive price and impeccable service from the start will win. Delaying market entry will be costly — clients will not forgive high spreads in the era of the digital economy.