Crypto news

Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast for the key crypto bill CLARITY Act, lowering the probability of its approval by the U.S. Senate in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop from previous estimates, and the reasons for such pessimism lie in unresolved political contradictions that continue to stall the initiative.

The main stumbling blocks are ethical standards for government officials and controversial provisions regarding stablecoin yields. The first point is sparking fierce debate among lawmakers, as it implies stricter rules for officials involved in regulating digital assets. The second aspect—the mechanism for distributing interest on stablecoins—remains an extremely sensitive topic, affecting the interests of issuers and the banking sector.

The time window for passing the law is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season kicks off ahead of the midterm elections. During this period, priorities will shift toward political campaigns, which virtually rules out the possibility of full consideration of a complex bill.

It is worth emphasizing that even if the CLARITY Act does not pass this year, it does not mean the collapse of crypto regulation in the U.S. However, the market is clearly disappointed by the prolonged process, and investors are already beginning to price in a longer period of uncertainty. For the industry, this is a signal: the bet on rapid passage of the law was too optimistic.

My assessment: a 10% probability looks realistic, but not catastrophic. Even in the event of failure in 2026, the core provisions of the CLARITY Act could form the basis for future initiatives. The key risk is not the bill itself, but the growing fragmentation of approaches to crypto assets at the state level, which creates chaos for businesses and complicates the work of federal regulators.