Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed to 10%: time is running out.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast for the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding cryptoasset regulation in the United States.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disagreements over a number of fundamental provisions. In particular, ethical standards for government officials who may hold digital assets have become a stumbling block, as have controversial aspects concerning the distribution of stablecoin yields. These issues not only slow down the process but also create fertile ground for bipartisan conflicts, making compromise unlikely ahead of the elections.
The time window for passing the initiative is critically narrowing. After lawmakers return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks of active work before the election campaign begins. Midterm elections traditionally paralyze legislative activity, as politicians shift their focus to their own campaigns. Under such conditions, even a technically well-crafted bill risks being postponed indefinitely.
From my perspective, the current dynamics indicate that the market is already pricing in a low probability of the CLARITY Act being passed soon. However, it is important to understand: even if the bill does not pass this year, the very fact of its advancement sets a precedent for future discussions. Investors should watch not so much the voting dates but rather which specific provisions on stablecoins will face the greatest resistance—this will determine the contours of future regulation in the next cycle.