Competition will bring down banking spreads in Russia's crypto market: analysts' forecast
With the start of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia, market spreads will inevitably be higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or more in a healthy competitive environment will not be possible — that is my conclusion after analyzing current dynamics and expert assessments in the field of transactional banking.
The key factor determining the final price for the client is not so much the bank's desire to earn, but rather the cost of liquidity, the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. At the outset, banks will have to factor into the price the costs of compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure — hence the elevated spreads in the early stages.
Why high spreads are a temporary phenomenon
I consider sustained markups of 5–7% and higher in a competitive market unlikely. As several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The spread will be shaped by the market, not the regulator: its foundation is the global price of the crypto asset plus the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
The Central Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not dictate specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks — and that is normal for an emerging market.
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity in the order book, and the cost of the bank's own liquidity, which will be required on balance sheets in significant amounts. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary.
Who will win the battle for the client
The winner will be the one with the larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the foreign exchange market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is currently not ready to pay for the mere word "bank." The level of stress among the retail audience has been high since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their need, but not an unjustifiably high cost of service. Wealthy clients, however, are a different story. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Which such a client will prefer — their own accountant or a Russian bank — is a rhetorical question.
My view: the market expects a rapid equalization of spreads to levels close to exchange rates, but with a premium for regulated status. Banks that are the first to build reliable liquidity and can offer a competitive price will capture the lion's share of the affluent audience. The only question is which players will be ready for this race.