Crypto news

Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, drastically lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a troubling signal for the crypto industry, which had pinned hopes on this document as a tool for legal clarity for digital assets.

The key reason for such a pessimistic scenario is the presence of unresolved political contradictions that continue to stall the initiative's progress. In particular, this concerns controversial provisions related to ethical standards for government officials, as well as mechanisms for distributing yield from stablecoins. These aspects are causing serious disagreements among lawmakers and require additional negotiations, which significantly complicates the process.

The situation is exacerbated by extremely tight time constraints. After Senate members return from recess, scheduled for September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for a full review and vote on the bill. With the midterm elections approaching, the political agenda will inevitably shift toward election campaigning, making the passage of the CLARITY Act in the current cycle practically impossible.

For the market, this means continued regulatory uncertainty, which will keep pressure on institutional investors awaiting clear rules of the game. Without progress on such initiatives, the U.S. risks ceding leadership in crypto innovation to other jurisdictions where the regulatory environment is already more predictable.

My analysis: The drop in probability to 10% is not just a number but a reflection of a systemic problem: crypto regulation in the U.S. is becoming hostage to the political cycle. Even if the bill is not passed this time, its provisions on stablecoins will likely form the basis for future debates. However, the industry should prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty and, perhaps, seek more agile solutions at the state level.