Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-scale entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and the first months of this journey promise to be costly for clients. At the start, spreads will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges, but players will not be able to sustain a markup of 5–7% or more amid healthy competition. It is a matter of time and the number of participants.
Why the markup will first soar and then collapse
Initial spreads will be high for objective reasons. Banks will need to factor into the price the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and the creation of new technological infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making bank crypto exchange services premium.
However, such a situation will not be sustainable. As soon as several major banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress at a high rate. The market, not the regulator, will become the main arbiter of pricing. The final spread will be shaped by the global price of the asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
It is important to understand: the Bank of Russia will regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and infrastructure, but it will not set fixed quotes for buying or selling. This means that markups across different banks may vary significantly, especially at the initial stage.
Who will win the race for clients
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding for the bank itself. Infrastructure costs and the legal structure are secondary factors, although important.
Victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The mass client today is not ready to overpay for the mere word "bank" — the stress level of the retail audience since 2022 is too high. Users are willing to accept many scenarios, but not an unjustifiably expensive service.
The picture is completely different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client faces a rhetorical question: will they entrust their assets to their own accountant or to a Russian bank?
My view: bank crypto exchange in Russia will inevitably evolve toward the foreign exchange market — with minimal margins and high liquidity. But more than one quarter will pass before that moment, and the first players able to offer a competitive price without losing quality will gain a decisive advantage in the fight for the most valuable clients.