Galaxy Digital sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed in the U.S. to 10%.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to a modest 10%. This signals growing skepticism within the professional community about the prospects of crypto regulation in the current political cycle.
Key obstacles remain unresolved political disagreements that are stalling the initiative's progress. This primarily concerns controversial provisions related to ethical standards for government officials, as well as complex issues tied to stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking heated debates both among lawmakers and within regulatory bodies.
The time window for making a decision is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season tied to the midterm elections begins. In such a tight timeframe, pushing a complex bill through all stages of the legislative process is practically impossible, especially given the need to align positions between chambers and lobbying groups.
In my view, Galaxy Digital's current assessment reflects not only tactical difficulties but also a fundamental problem: the cryptoasset market continues to evolve faster than lawmakers can formulate adequate rules of the game. Even if the CLARITY Act is passed, its content may become outdated by the time it takes effect, calling into question the effectiveness of the entire approach.
Under the current circumstances, market participants should prepare for prolonged regulatory uncertainty, which, however, opens up opportunities for jurisdictions with a more flexible approach to digital assets.