Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia
The Russian banking sector is preparing to enter the cryptocurrency operations market, and the first steps will come at a high price for clients. However, as my analysis of market dynamics shows, inflated spreads on digital assets are a temporary phenomenon. From the very start, banks will be forced to factor substantial costs into pricing, but they are unlikely to sustain margins of 5–7% or higher under real competition.
Why spreads will be high at first, then decline
At the initial stage, banks will need to compensate for significant expenses: the cost of liquidity, risk hedging, building new infrastructure, and compliance procedures. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points. However, I see no fundamental basis for maintaining such levels. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress at a rapid pace.
The key factor here is market-based pricing, not administrative decisions by the regulator. The final spread will be shaped by the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, and the infrastructure expenses of each specific bank. The central bank will likely focus on access rules and the composition of participants, rather than setting fixed quotes. Therefore, the variation in markups between different banks could be significant.
Within each bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of funding on the balance sheet. Infrastructure and legal aspects will take a back seat.
Who will win the battle for clients
Victory will go to those with the largest marketing budget and the greatest willingness to take risks in order to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. By its very nature, this mechanism will resemble the foreign exchange market, not a product with an administratively set tariff.
Today's mass-market client is not willing to overpay merely for the word "bank." Since 2022, stress levels among retail audiences have been high: users are open to many scenarios to meet their needs, but not to unjustifiably high service costs. The picture is entirely different for affluent clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a hassle-free experience. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is, in my view, rhetorical.
My conclusion: the banking sector faces rapid margin compression, and those who can offer a competitive price and reliability at the same time will win. Delaying market entry may cost more than temporary losses at the start.