Galaxy Digital has lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act's passage to 10%: why the market underestimates the risks
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have adjusted their forecast for the CLARITY Act legislative initiative, lowering the probability of its approval by the U.S. Senate in 2026 to a modest 10%. This significant revision reflects the deep systemic challenges the bill faces on its path to a final vote.
The key stumbling blocks remain unresolved political disagreements, primarily concerning ethical standards for government officials and controversial provisions on the distribution of stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking fierce debates both among lawmakers and within the digital asset industry itself, creating an insurmountable barrier to rapid consensus.
The time factor adds particular urgency to the situation. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have an extremely limited window—just two to three weeks—for a full review and passage of the initiative. This timeframe is practically unrealistic for a complex bill requiring careful deliberation and bipartisan coordination, especially against the backdrop of upcoming midterm elections, which will inevitably shift politicians' attention to electoral priorities.
In essence, we are witnessing a classic scenario where ambitious regulatory reform collides with the harsh reality of the political calendar. Even if the bill has a technically strong structure, its fate now depends not on its content, but on political will and timing.
My analytical conclusion: The market will likely continue pricing in a low probability of CLARITY Act passage, which could increase volatility in the stablecoin sector. Investors should prepare for a prolonged period of regulatory uncertainty in the U.S., which will temporarily shift focus to more friendly jurisdictions such as the EU and the UAE, where clear rules for digital assets are already in place.