Bank crypto spreads in Russia: why high fees are doomed to fall
The Russian banking sector is preparing for a full-fledged entry into the cryptocurrency operations market, and the first steps will be associated with fairly high costs for clients. However, as an analysis of market dynamics shows, inflated spreads on the purchase and sale of digital assets will not last long. The key factor here is not so much the banks' desire to earn money, but the objective cost of launching new infrastructure and ensuring liquidity.
At the initial stage, banks will have to factor significant costs into the price: from the cost of liquidity and risk hedging to building a reliable legal and technical foundation. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making services more expensive than on classic crypto exchanges. But such "starting" figures are not the market mainstream, but rather reflect the costs of innovation.
Why spreads will not stay at a high level
Competition is the main antagonist of high fees. As soon as several major players enter the market, including banks and other regulated entities, margins will begin to shrink rapidly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final price. The spread will be composed of the global cost of the crypto asset, the price of liquidity, infrastructure costs, and the margin of a specific bank. At the same time, the Central Bank will likely focus on access rules and the composition of participants, rather than on directive setting of quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly among different banks, especially depending on the number of active users and the real volumes of client liquidity.
The pricing mechanism will resemble the currency market, not a market for goods with administratively fixed tariffs. The more liquidity providers there are and the higher the competition, the closer prices will be to market levels. Under such conditions, maintaining a spread of 5–7% or higher will become practically impossible.
Who will win the battle for the client
Interestingly, the mass client today is not ready to pay simply for the word "bank." The level of stress and distrust in retail has been high since 2022, and the user is willing to accept many scenarios except one — an unjustifiably expensive service. But wealthy clients are a completely different matter. With an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. The question is only who they will prefer: their own accountant or a Russian bank. The answer, in my opinion, is obvious: the one with the larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy will win.
My forecast: we will witness a rapid convergence of rates to the market level. Banks that are the first to build efficient and inexpensive infrastructure will gain a competitive advantage, while those that try to extract excess profits at the start risk being left out of client demand.