Crypto news

Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their outlook on the prospects of the CLARITY Act legislative initiative in the U.S., lowering their estimate of the probability of its approval by the Senate to 10% in 2026. This is a notable decline compared to previous expectations, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding digital asset regulation.

Key obstacles remain unresolved disputes over several provisions of the bill. In particular, this concerns ethical standards for government officials who may participate in regulating the crypto industry, as well as requirements for stablecoin yields—these aspects are causing serious disagreements between lawmakers and industry lobbyists.

The timing factor adds particular urgency to the situation. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for a full review of the initiative before the start of the election campaign. The midterm elections will inevitably shift politicians' attention to electoral priorities, making a prompt compromise on such a contentious issue unlikely.

Under current conditions, even accelerated approval procedures are unlikely to allow the law to pass before the end of the session. The lack of consensus on key points, especially regarding stablecoin regulation, creates a risk of the process dragging on indefinitely.

My comment: This dynamic is not surprising—the market has long been signaling that the Congressional agenda is overloaded, and crypto regulation, unfortunately, remains far from the top priority. If the CLARITY Act does not pass in this window, the industry will have to prepare for another year of uncertainty, which could intensify the outflow of institutional investors to more predictable jurisdictions.