Crypto news

Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of the bill's approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the legislative process and political obstacles that are becoming increasingly apparent.

Key factors driving such a pessimistic scenario include unresolved disputes over ethical standards for government officials and provisions concerning stablecoin yields. These aspects are causing serious disagreements among lawmakers, significantly slowing the progress of the initiative.

Of particular concern is the time factor. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to consider and pass the bill before the midterm elections begin. This is a critically tight timeline, given the complexity and contentiousness of the issues under discussion.

Midterm elections traditionally divert lawmakers' attention to campaign activities, making it nearly impossible to pass such a large-scale and controversial piece of legislation in the remaining period. Even with maximum mobilization of supporters, procedural delays and political bargaining could bury the initiative.

The current situation underscores a fundamental problem: cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. remains hostage to the political calendar. This creates uncertainty for a market that needs clear rules of the game. Investors and industry participants should prepare for the possibility that clarity in stablecoin regulation may be postponed indefinitely.

My analysis: The drop in probability to 10% is not just a number, but a signal of a deep political impasse. Even if the bill somehow miraculously passes this year, its current version will likely be heavily watered down. The market should treat this scenario as the baseline and build long-term strategies accounting for prolonged regulatory uncertainty.