Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia.
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will be accompanied by inflated spreads, but this is a temporary phenomenon. In the long term, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in a competitive market will not be possible. The key factor will not be banks' desire to profit, but the real cost of liquidity, clients' willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to traditional fiat transfer channels.
Why spreads will be high at first and then decline
At the initial stage, banks are forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making initial offerings expensive for consumers.
However, I do not see sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads at the 5–7% level. As soon as several banks and other regulated players enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final price. The spread will consist of the global asset price, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
The Bank of Russia is expected to focus on access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, rather than setting specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across banks, especially at the start.
Who will win the competition for users
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity needed to balance the books. The bank's infrastructure and legal structure are secondary factors that will not determine the price.
The winner will be the one with a larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks to dominate the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism will resemble the currency market rather than a product with an administratively set tariff.
Today, the mass client is not willing to pay for the mere word "bank." This is linked to the level of stress among the retail audience since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service.
The picture is completely different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Whether such a client chooses their own accountant or a Russian bank is a rhetorical question.
My conclusion: banks that are the first to offer competitive spreads and build reliable infrastructure will capture a significant market share. Those that try to maintain margins at the 5–7% level will quickly lose clients to more flexible players.