Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Galaxy Digital's analytical department has revised its estimates regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval to 10% in 2026. This decision reflects the deep disagreements that continue to stall the initiative's progress, despite its importance for regulating the cryptocurrency market.
Key sticking points remain unresolved political issues, particularly ethical standards for government officials and controversial provisions concerning stablecoin yields. These aspects are sparking fierce debates among lawmakers, significantly complicating the achievement of a compromise.
The time factor adds particular urgency to the situation. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for a full review and vote on the bill. The approaching midterm elections will inevitably divert politicians' attention to campaign activities, making swift passage of the CLARITY Act unlikely.
In my view, the current dynamics demonstrate a systemic problem: even a bill so significant to the industry cannot overcome bureaucratic and political barriers during the pre-election period. This creates uncertainty for market participants who expect clear rules of the game. However, it is worth emphasizing that even a 10% chance is not a zero scenario, and in the event of an unexpected compromise, the market could receive a long-awaited growth boost. For now, investors should prepare for prolonged regulatory uncertainty.