Galaxy Digital has lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage in 2026 are estimated at 10%.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to 10%. This is a significant drop compared to previous estimates, reflecting the growing complexity of the political landscape surrounding cryptoasset regulation.
Key obstacles remain unresolved issues related to ethical standards for government officials and controversial provisions on stablecoin yields. These aspects are causing serious disagreements among lawmakers, casting doubt on the possibility of reaching a compromise in the short term.
The timing factor adds particular urgency to the situation. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks for a full review of the initiative before the election campaign begins. The midterm elections will inevitably divert politicians' attention from legislative matters, making the window of opportunity extremely narrow.
Under current conditions, even swift advancement of the bill through committees and procedural stages looks unlikely. The political will needed to overcome disagreements may prove insufficient ahead of the electoral cycle.
My analysis: The low probability of the CLARITY Act passing this year is not a catastrophe for the market, but it is a signal that regulatory clarity in the U.S. is being delayed. Investors should prepare for continued fragmented regulation at the state level and a strengthened role for the SEC as the primary arbiter. In the long term, however, this could push the industry toward more active dialogue with lawmakers, ultimately leading to more balanced and well-considered decisions.