Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: market forecast
The launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia will begin with high spreads that will significantly exceed those of classic crypto exchanges. However, it is unlikely that market participants will be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or higher amid competitive pressure. This is my analysis of the current situation, based on an assessment of market mechanisms and player behavior.
The key factor determining the price for the client is not the bank's pursuit of excess profits, but a combination of costs: the cost of liquidity, the client's willingness to pay for a regulated framework, and the difference compared to familiar fiat transfer channels. At the start, banks will be forced to factor in costs for compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could reach several basis points, making the first months of operation expensive for users.
Why spreads will first rise and then decline
High spreads at the launch stage are inevitable. Banks need to recoup investments in liquidity, legal structures, and technological solutions. However, I see no prerequisites for sustainably maintaining a margin of 5–7% or higher. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, natural downward pressure on prices will begin. Competition will push margins down, and at a fairly rapid pace.
It is important to understand: the spread is shaped by the market, not the regulator. It is composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging and infrastructure, as well as the specific bank's margin. The Bank of Russia, it seems, will focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not set fixed buy and sell quotes. This means that markups may vary significantly across different banks—and this is precisely what will drive competition.
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself. I consider infrastructure and legal costs to be secondary factors—they affect the base price but do not determine market dynamics.
Who will win the fight for the client
Victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for dominance in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors—the mass client is currently not ready to overpay for the mere word "bank." Since 2022, stress levels among the retail audience have been high: users are willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, but not unjustifiably high service costs.
The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, people are willing to pay for speed, transparency, and a lack of problems. The question of whether such a client will prefer their own accountant or a Russian bank is rhetorical. Banks that can offer reliability and convenience will capture this segment.
My conclusion: the market faces a short-term period of high markups, but within the first year of active banking operations, spreads will approach the levels of major crypto exchanges. The key factor will not be regulation, but the fight for liquidity and the client base. Banks that bet on technological sophistication and low margins will win in the long term.