Galaxy Digital sharply lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passing the stablecoin law are fading.
Galaxy Digital analysts have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, and the picture is not in favor of the crypto industry. The probability that the bill will be approved by the upper chamber of Congress before the end of 2026 is now estimated at only 10%. This is a significant decline compared to previous, more optimistic scenarios, signaling growing difficulties in advancing stablecoin legislation.
The key obstacle remains unresolved political disagreements that are accumulating around the document. This primarily concerns ethical standards for government officials, as well as controversial provisions related to the distribution of yield from stablecoins. These issues are sparking heated debates among lawmakers, and consensus has not yet been reached.
The time window for making a decision is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the active phase of the election campaign begins. The midterm elections will inevitably divert politicians' attention away from the legislative agenda, making prompt consideration of the CLARITY Act practically impossible under current conditions.
In essence, we are witnessing a classic situation where an ambitious bill becomes hostage to the political calendar. Even if technical details are finalized, the lack of time and pre-election rhetoric could bury the initiative until the next convocation of Congress.
My view: The stablecoin market continues to grow, but regulatory uncertainty in the U.S. remains the main brake on institutional capital. If the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, we will see a further outflow of issuers to more friendly jurisdictions, which will weaken the dollar's position in the digital economy.