Competition will bring down banking spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia: analysts' forecast
With the start of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia, market spreads will inevitably be higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, no player will be able to maintain a markup of 5–7% or more in a healthy competitive environment. This is my conclusion, based on an analysis of transaction banking and payment systems that I conducted together with leading industry experts.
Why starting spreads will be high but short-lived
At the launch stage, banks are forced to factor significant costs into the price: the cost of liquidity, compliance procedures, risk hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup may reach several basis points. However, I see no sustainable prerequisites for maintaining spreads in the 5–7% range in a competitive market. As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the arena, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly.
It is important to understand: the spread is shaped by the market, not the regulator. It consists of the global price of the crypto asset plus the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin. The Bank of Russia, as I note in my materials, will primarily regulate access rules, the composition of participants, and market infrastructure, rather than set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks.
Within a single bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity in the order book, and the cost of liquidity for the bank itself, which will be required on balance sheets in significant amounts. I consider the cost of infrastructure and the legal structure to be secondary factors.
Who will win the battle for the client
The winner will be the one with the larger marketing budget and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors. The more liquidity providers and competition there are among banks, the closer prices will be to market levels. The mechanism here resembles the foreign exchange market more than a product with an administratively set tariff.
The mass client is currently not willing to pay for the mere word "bank." This is linked to the level of stress among the retail audience since 2022: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one—an unjustifiably high cost of service. The picture is different for wealthy clients. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction size of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Which one such a client will prefer—their own accountant or a Russian bank—is a rhetorical question.
My expert opinion: the market for banking cryptocurrency in Russia will develop according to the scenario of classic financial competition, where price is the main tool in the battle for the client. Banks that try to maintain margins at the 5–7% level will quickly lose market share to more flexible and technologically advanced players. In the long term, those who can offer not just access to cryptocurrency, but a full-fledged, transparent, and fast service with minimal markup will win.