CLARITY Act under threat: Galaxy Digital lowers chances of passage to 10%
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecasts regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, lowering the probability of its approval in 2026 to a modest 10%. This decision reflects growing concern over unresolved political disagreements that continue to stall the initiative's progress.
Two aspects remain key sticking points. First, ethical standards for government officials, which are sparking fierce debate among lawmakers. Second, provisions concerning stablecoin yields—an issue that divides both Republicans and Democrats. These disagreements create serious obstacles to achieving the bipartisan consensus needed for a successful vote.
Additional pressure comes from the time factor. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks to consider the initiative before the election campaign begins. The midterm elections will inevitably divert politicians' attention, making such a tight timeline practically unrealistic for a full discussion and passage of a complex bill.
In my analysis, this dynamic seems natural. Cryptocurrency regulation in the U.S. has traditionally faced bureaucratic delays, and the pre-election period only exacerbates the situation. Even if the CLARITY Act is not passed this year, its provisions are likely to serve as a foundation for future legislative initiatives, making the current debates an important precedent for the industry.
Investors and market participants should prepare for prolonged uncertainty in stablecoin regulation. However, this does not negate the long-term trend toward the institutionalization of digital assets—it just means the path to it will be more arduous than previously expected.