Banking spreads in Russia's crypto market: why "expensive" is temporary
Russian banks, preparing to launch operations with digital assets, are factoring into the price for clients not only their own margin but also the costs of new infrastructure. At the initial stage, spreads will be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, maintaining a markup of 5–7% or higher in conditions of real competition will not work — the market will quickly adjust the price.
Why starting spreads will be high
The key factor determining the price of the service is not the bank's desire to earn, but the cost of liquidity. At the start, financial institutions will have to compensate for the costs of hedging, compliance, and building the technological base. In certain products, the markup could reach several percentage points, which is natural for any new regulated direction.
But I do not consider the scenario sustainable in which banks can endlessly maintain spreads at the level of 5–7%. As soon as several major players and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to shrink. The mechanism here is simple: the more liquidity providers and the higher the competition, the closer prices get to market levels.
Who will win the fight for the client
The regulator, represented by the Bank of Russia, will determine access rules, the composition of participants, and the overall architecture of the market, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups among different banks may vary significantly, especially in the early stages.
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active users, the volume of real client liquidity, and the cost of balance-sheet operations. Infrastructure and legal costs are secondary factors, although they do affect the final price.
Victory in this race will go to those with a larger marketing budget and a higher willingness to take risks for the sake of dominating the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors but also about the mass client. However, the mass consumer is not yet ready to overpay for the word "bank" — the stress level of the retail audience has remained high since 2022, and the user is willing to accept many scenarios except one — an unjustifiably high cost of service.
A completely different picture emerges with wealthy clients. Large capital continues to migrate between jurisdictions, and with an average ticket of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Such a client would rather choose a bank than their own accountant — here the question is rhetorical.
My view: the market for bank crypto services in Russia faces rapid saturation. Those who are now building in "fat" spreads risk losing their audience within the first year of operation. The winners will not be those trying to maximize margins at the start, but those who bet on volume and client loyalty, offering fair market conditions.