Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered its forecast for the CLARITY Act: the chances of passage are only 10%
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their expectations regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, estimating the likelihood of its approval in 2026 at just 10%. This is a significant decline from previous optimistic forecasts, reflecting the growing political uncertainty surrounding digital asset regulation in the United States.
Key obstacles remain unresolved disagreements over a number of fundamental provisions of the document. In particular, this concerns ethical standards for government officials who may participate in regulating the crypto industry, as well as controversial aspects related to stablecoin yields. These issues are sparking heated debates both among lawmakers and within the administration itself, significantly slowing the progress of the initiative.
The Time Window Is Shrinking
The situation is made particularly acute by the factor of time. After senators return from recess on September 14, lawmakers will have only two to three weeks for a full review and vote on the bill. The approaching midterm elections will inevitably shift politicians' attention to the campaign agenda, making prompt passage of the CLARITY Act virtually impossible in the current political cycle.
It is worth noting that even if the bill successfully passes through the Senate, it faces a difficult path of reconciliation with the House of Representatives, where positions on crypto regulation are also far from consensus. Under the current circumstances, market participants must prepare for a prolonged period of uncertainty in U.S. digital asset legislation.
My analysis: The current situation demonstrates a classic example of how political cycles and election dynamics can torpedo even technically well-developed legislative initiatives. For the crypto industry, this means that counting on clear rules of the game from the United States in the coming months is not realistic—and this will likely push some businesses to more actively reconsider jurisdictions in favor of more friendly markets, such as the UAE or Singapore.