Competition will bring down bank spreads on cryptocurrency in Russia
With the launch of cryptocurrency banking operations in Russia, spreads will initially be noticeably higher than on classic crypto exchanges. However, banks are unlikely to maintain a markup of 5–7% or more amid competitive pressure. This is my analysis of the current situation, based on an in-depth study of market mechanisms and expert assessments in the field of transactional banking.
The key factor determining the price for the client is not the bank's desire to profit, but the cost of liquidity and the client's own willingness to pay for a regulated framework. The difference from familiar fiat transfer channels will also play a significant role in shaping the final markup.
Why spreads will be high at the start but then decline
At the initial stage, banks will have to factor into the price the costs of liquidity, compliance, hedging, and building new infrastructure. In certain products, the markup could easily reach several basis points, or even percentages. But I see no long-term prerequisites for maintaining spreads at 5–7% or higher.
As soon as several banks and other regulated participants enter the market, margins will begin to compress fairly quickly. The market, not the regulator, will shape the final spread. It will be composed of the global price of the crypto asset, the cost of liquidity, hedging, infrastructure, and the specific bank's margin.
The Bank of Russia, as I believe, will focus on regulating access rules, participant composition, and infrastructure, but will not set specific buy and sell quotes. Therefore, markups may vary significantly across different banks — this is natural for an emerging market.
Within an individual bank, the spread will depend on the number of active product users, the volume of real user liquidity in the order book, and the cost of the bank's own liquidity, which will be required on balance sheets in significant amounts. I consider infrastructure and legal costs to be secondary factors.
Who will win the battle for the client
Victory will go to those with larger marketing budgets and a greater willingness to take risks for a dominant position in the new economy. This is not only about qualified investors — the mass client is currently unwilling to pay for the mere word "bank."
Since 2022, stress levels among the retail audience have been high: the Russian user is willing to accept many scenarios to meet their needs, except one — an unjustifiably high cost of service. But wealthy clients are a different story. Large capital continues to move between countries, and with an average transaction of 3–5 million rubles, a person is willing to pay for speed, transparency, and the absence of problems. Which such a client will prefer — their own accountant or a Russian bank — is a rhetorical question.
My conclusion: banks that are the first to build reliable infrastructure and offer competitive spreads will capture a significant market share. The rest will either have to catch up or retreat into niche products. In the long term, the client will win — prices will inevitably move closer to market levels.