Galaxy Digital has sharply lowered the odds of the CLARITY Act being passed: only 10% remain.
Analysts at Galaxy Digital have revised their forecast regarding the fate of the CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate, reducing the likelihood of its passage in 2026 to a modest 10%. This sharp decline reflects the deep political divisions that continue to stall the initiative's progress, despite its importance to the crypto industry.
Two aspects remain key stumbling blocks. First, ethical standards for government officials—an issue that sparks fierce debate among lawmakers and creates additional barriers to compromise. Second, provisions concerning stablecoin yields, which have yet to receive clear interpretation and raise concerns among regulators.
The time window for passing the bill is critically narrowing. After senators return from recess on September 14, they will have only two to three weeks before the campaign season tied to the midterm elections begins. This virtually eliminates the possibility of full consideration and voting on such a complex and contentious document in the current political climate.
In my view, such a low estimate is not just a conservative forecast but a signal of a systemic crisis in the U.S. legislative process regarding digital assets. Even if the CLARITY Act is ultimately passed, its content could be significantly watered down in favor of political compromises, reducing its practical value for the market. Investors should prepare for prolonged uncertainty and not factor rapid regulatory changes into their strategies.